Exports continue to slow down in June, and the export tax rebate policy is expected to be reversed. It is particularly important to adopt appropriate wall materials and reasonable structures. Exports continue to slow down in June, and the export tax rebate policy is expected to be reversed. China Construction Machinery Information Guide: now, it is a critical point. On July 10, the General Administration of Customs released the latest import and export statistics: exports in June were US $121.533 billion, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year. For a long time, the export increase of 4 and the speed lower than 20% before loading the test piece have been regarded as a critical point by many people. For this decline, we should have a market
now, it is a critical point
on July 10, the General Administration of Customs released the latest import and export statistics: exports in June were $121.533 billion, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year. For a long time, the export growth rate below 20% has been regarded as a critical point by many people
"we should have market expectations for this decline. The key is how much it will decline. There should be some indicators to define this degree." Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, told this newspaper. She believes that the recent management research on foreign trade is also looking for a bottom line for the expected decline
an official of the Ministry of Commerce who participated in the survey told this newspaper: "due to the changes in the international environment superimposed on the role of leading policies, the national policy may shift to ensuring economic growth, and the next foreign trade policy may be loosened, and the first choice may be to increase the export tax rebate of some products."
economic downside risk
the data of China mining consulting shows that in June 2008, the CFLP China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 52.0%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest point in the last two years
in this index system reflecting the micro operation of enterprises, while the purchase volume index has fallen to the lowest point in recent two years, the production volume, new orders and export orders of enterprises are also declining. The export order index provided by China mining consulting in June was 50.2, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month and 4.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The export order index of 14 industries fell compared with the previous month, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and metal products industry fell significantly. Only six industries' export order index rose from the previous month. The data shows that the export situation is not optimistic
this prediction coincides with the statistics of the actual import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs a few days ago
Dr. Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, said, "the nominal growth rate of China's exports in June fell sharply to 17.6% from 28.1% in May. After excluding price factors, it increased by only 6%
in fact, China's exports to the United States have slowed down since the second half of last year, and China's exports to the European Union have also slowed down since this year. The data in June further showed that China's export growth to Southeast Asian countries, Russia and other major emerging markets also began to slow down
in 2007, the contribution rate of exports to GDP was 2.7%
Chen Xingdong, chief economist of BNP Paribas Peregrine securities (Asia Co., Ltd.), said, "although export is not the largest engine driving China's economic growth, it is the leading horse in the troika. It is the pull of export that brings the benign development of manufacturing, investment and non manufacturing industries to China's economy."
the callback of export tax rebate is expected to take the lead.
the situation of slowdown does not seem to be improved soon. "Due to the rise of labor costs and the appreciation of the RMB, the production costs have been greatly increased and the competitiveness of export enterprises has decreased. Coupled with the uncertainties of the international environment, this situation should continue in the second half of the year." Zuo Xiaolei said
the above Ministry of Commerce official also said: "the actual situation of exports is less optimistic than the data shows. Due to the demand for employment, we cannot allow a substantial decline in economic growth."
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, believes that according to PMI and other data observations, GDP in the second quarter is likely to fall to 9%-10%. For seasonal reasons, the third quarter is the weakest period of growth in the whole year. If the Olympic Games can not bring related industrial income, then the annual GDP needs to be corrected according to the situation in the fourth quarter
in this situation, "this kind of certification object is all product quality supervision and inspection institutions and other laboratories that provide fair data to the society; for example, various product quality supervision and inspection stations, environmental testing stations, centers for Disease Control and prevention, and other selective export tax rebate policy callback is expected to take the lead." The above Ministry of Commerce official said that these years
Ha Jiming also said: "in the face of downward pressure on exports, the government is expected to be more active in fiscal policy, including selectively increasing the export tax rebate rate of some labor-intensive products."